COINDESK · 2026-11-03 12:30 UTC

Bitcoin is breaking a midterm election pattern going back to 2014

Bitcoin is trading 5.2% above its 200-day moving average ahead of the US midterm elections, breaking a pattern where it traded below this average in 2014, 2018, and 2022. Historically, BTC has rallied significantly in the year after midterms, though the first few months tend to be choppy; near-term volatility is expected from election outcomes, ETF flows, and macro data like the jobs report. Bitcoin's volatility index (BVIV) recently broke out of a descending triangle pattern, signaling potential upside as several market-moving events occur this week.

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