BLOOMBERG LAW · 2026-11-05 18:34 UTC

Kalshi and Polymarket Get a Passing Grade on the Midterms Exam

Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket accurately forecasted the 2026 US midterm elections, contrasting with recent prediction failures. The markets previously gave incorrect odds in August (95% for Francesca Hong's Democratic primary win) and October (20% for Lula's victory in Brazil).

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