BLOOMBERG · 2026-11-05 18:02 UTC

Kalshi and Polymarket Get a Passing Grade on the US Midterm Elections

Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket achieved mixed results forecasting the 2026 US midterm elections, earning a 'B' grade from Wake Forest economist Koleman Strumpf. Markets correctly predicted Democratic victories but underestimated the scale of the wave; debate continues over whether they outperformed polling models like Nate Silver's. Markets showed advantages in races with X-factors like early voting data and viral candidate moments, while polling models performed better in some individual races.

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