BLOOMBERG · 2026-11-03 16:52 UTC

Midterm Election Trading on Kalshi and Polymarket Lags Prediction Market Boom

Prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket saw election trading stagnate for the 2026 midterms compared to 2024, with US election volume flat on Kalshi and shrinking on Polymarket. Overall platform volume has grown 20x since October 2024, but almost entirely from sports and crypto trading; politics dropped from two-thirds of volume in 2024 to just 1% last month. Low liquidity in midterm markets makes forecasts vulnerable to manipulation with only thousands of dollars needed to move prices, raising concerns about the platforms' social utility and regulatory credibility.

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