THE BLOCK · 2026-11-08 23:07 UTC

Onchain data casts doubt on insider-trading theory in NYT's 'suspicious' election betting story

A New York Times report flagged large, profitable Polymarket and Kalshi bets on Nebraska and Michigan Senate races placed before polls were published. The Block's onchain analysis found the trader has a history of large, risky trades and DeFi yield-farming, and may have placed a $153,000 Kalshi bet about 10 minutes after one poll was published. Two experts said foul play cannot be ruled out but the evidence better fits directional bets by a crypto whale; Polymarket said it is investigating.

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