CROWDFUNDINSIDER · 2026-11-08 20:26 UTC

Prediction Markets : Polymarket and Kalshi Showed the Blue Wave Early, Then Missed Key Upsets

Kalshi and Polymarket correctly indicated a Democratic House and Senate majority well before networks projected it, with roughly $1.3 billion in combined election-contract trading. A New York magazine analysis found markets correctly picked Democratic wins in Texas, Ohio, Michigan and Maine but favored Republicans in South Carolina, Iowa and Kansas, where Democrats flipped the seats. With Democrats controlling Congress, the platforms face possible regulation, including pending state lawsuits and federal debates over insider trading and CFTC jurisdiction.

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