BLOOMBERG · 2026-10-31 15:00 UTC

Why Kalshi, Polymarket Odds Don't Mimic Midterm Elections 2026 Polls

Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket show similar directional trends to polls for 2026 midterm races, though they measure different things: poll margins show lead size while market odds show win probability. Some races show genuine disagreement between polls and markets, such as Nevada and Oregon governor races polling as toss-ups while markets favor Democrats, and South Carolina and Nebraska Senate races. Prediction market experts warn the public misinterprets odds as massive blowouts when compared to polling margins, though the underlying data often aligns; traders may react to…

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